Dean Rohrer

Zwei wirtschaftspolitische Anregungen in der globalen Krise

WASHINGTON, DC – Im Gegensatz zu Nicht-Experten wissen Experten, dass sie weniger wissen, als Nicht-Experten zu wissen glauben. So viel war jedenfalls klar bei der gerade zu Ende gegangenen Frühjahrstagung des Internationalen Währungsfonds und der Weltbankgruppe – drei intensiven Tagen der Gespräche, zu denen sich Finanzminister, Zentralbanker und andere politische Entscheidungsträger einfanden.

Unser ökonomisches Fachwissen ist in grundlegender Weise beschränkt. Man denke an die Geld- und Fiskalpolitik. Trotz jahrzehntelanger sorgfältiger Datensammlung sowie mathematischer und statistischer Forschung zu vielen bedeutsamen Fragen, verfügen wir über wenig mehr als Faustregeln. So wissen wir beispielsweise, dass man zur Bekämpfung einer Stagnation die Zinssätze senken und Liquidität in das Finanzsystem pumpen soll und  dass man die Inflation durch Anhebung der Leitzinsen und der Mindestreserven der Banken in den Griff bekommt.  Manchmal verlassen wir uns bei unserer Einschätzung auf eine Kombination aus zinspolitischen Maßnahmen und Offenmarktgeschäften. Dennoch bleibt es eine Tatsache, dass unser Verständnis der Funktionsweise dieser Maßnahmen rudimentär ist. 

Die erwähnten Faustregeln funktionieren (zumindest halbwegs) aufgrund von Evolution. Falsche Schritte werden im Lauf der Zeit sanktioniert und ihre Anwender lernen entweder durch die Beobachtung anderer oder verschwinden von der Bildfläche. Wir bekommen unsere Geld- und Fiskalpolitik auf die gleiche Weise hin wie Vögel ihren Nestbau.

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