Dean Rohrer

解决全球危机的两种政策方案

发自华盛顿特区——只有专家们才知道自己所知的比外行人认为的要少。这在刚刚闭幕的国际货币基金组织和世界银行集团春季会议中表现得尤为明显——各国财政部长、中央银行家和其他政策制定者们都被议程密集的三天会谈聚到了一起。

我们的经济专业知识在基础方法上是很局限的。以货币和财政政策为例,尽管几十年来我们都小心收集数据并进行数学和统计学研究,在很多大问题上我们也只不过是比一般经验知道得多一点而已。比如,我们知道为了对抗经济停滞应该降低利率并注入流动性,而且应该提高政策利率和银行存款准备金率以抑制通胀。有时候我们依赖自身的判断来结合利率行动与公开市场操作。但事实上我们对这些政策机制的了解还是很粗浅的。

作为进化的结果,这些经验法则还算有效(至少还在容忍范围之内)。随着时间的推移,错误的行动被惩罚,其使用者要么通过观察别人来学习、要么被淘汰。我们像鸟儿合理筑巢一样习得合理的货币和财政政策。

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