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rogoff186_Carol SmiljanNurPhoto via Getty Images_argentinemoneywallet Carol Smiljan/NurPhoto via Getty Images

阿根廷事件之后的国际货币基金组织

发自剑桥—几乎在众人眨眼之间,阿根廷政府便以惊人的速度几乎从零开始积累了一大笔债务,然后又以几乎同样快的速度启动违约。与该国2002年的慢动作违约相比,最近这场危机感觉就像是一场1分钟内快进完毕的莎士比亚戏剧。但在以上两种情况下违约都是不可避免的,因为该国手中这一债务,赤字和货币政策的混合组合不可持续,同时政治阶层也无法及时实施必要的调整。

在这两种情况下,国际货币基金组织(IMF)的贷款似乎都只是在推迟那些不可避免的事情,更糟糕的是还会加剧最终的崩溃。因此当阿根廷在不到一代人的时间里经历了两次崩溃之后,是时候考虑IMF该如何重新其调整职责范围以应对新兴市场债务危机了。当任何旨在弥补不可持续预算赤字的措施都被定义为紧缩政策时,IMF如何能有效地帮助各国重获接入私人信贷市场的渠道?唯一的答案是大幅增加国际援助机构(IMF是这些机构的贷款方)的资源。但不幸的是,人们对此似乎没什么兴趣。

那么IMF为何愿意将资源投入到一个(至少马后炮地看来)只能通过加强财政调整(更多紧缩),债务违约,更多外国援助或者以上三者的混合才能解决的状况中呢?

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  1. solana114_FADEL SENNAAFP via Getty Images_libyaprotestflag Fadel Senna/AFP via Getty Images

    Relieving Libya’s Agony

    Javier Solana

    The credibility of all external actors in the Libyan conflict is now at stake. The main domestic players will lower their maximalist pretensions only when their foreign supporters do the same, ending hypocrisy once and for all and making a sincere effort to find room for consensus.

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