埃及革命从头开始

开罗—埃及历史上首个民主选出的总统穆尔西是否是军事政变赶下台的,这或许可以争论,但不可否认的是,导致穆尔西下台的6月30日示威乃是埃及历史上最大规模的群众运动,也是埃及革命第一阶段以失败告终的难以辩驳的证据。

政客、将军和法官不可能克服短视,为新共和国打下基础。强行撸下当选总统应该避免——自由主义反对派本可以要求政府做出让步直到合法选举(定于今年晚些时候开始),从而缓和公众愤怒。表现好的话,他们本可以接着迫使穆尔西的穆斯林兄弟会接受必要的妥协。

穆尔西下台的最危险后果在7月8日显露无疑。那一天,开罗安全部队朝走上街头要求穆尔西复职的成千上万支持者开了火,五十多人被杀。如今,埃及人担心1992年阿尔及利亚或1999年巴基斯坦的局面重演——1992年,阿尔及利亚军队宣布选举无效并掀起血腥内战;而在1999年,穆沙拉夫将军领导了一场大受欢迎但马上成为遗憾的政变推翻了总理谢里夫。

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