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Пять уроков популистского правления

ВАРШАВА – Ярослав Качиньский, фактический лидер Польши, стал, вслед за Дональдом Трампом, воплощением популистской угрозы для западной демократической модели. В ожидании вступления Трампа в должность президента США, которое состоится 20 января, стоит задуматься о том, как прошел первый год популистского правления в Польше. Результаты противоречат ожиданиям.

Традиционная точка зрения о том, что ждет США (а также, возможно, Францию и Нидерланды) в 2017 году, заключается в том, что лидер будет шарахаться из стороны в сторону и проводить противоречивую политику, от которой в первую очередь выиграют богатые. Бедные проиграют, потому что популисты не могут надеяться на восстановление рабочих мест в производстве, несмотря на свои обещания. И массовый приток мигрантов и беженцев будет продолжаться, потому что у популистов нет никакого плана по устранению коренных причин этой проблемы. В конце концов, популистские правительства, не способные к эффективному управлению, падут, а их лидеры либо подвергнутся импичменту, либо не будут избраны на следующих выборах.

Качиньский встретился с такими же ожиданиями. Либерально настроенные поляки думали, что он будет действовать на благо богатых, создаст хаос и вскоре сам себе подставит ножку – именно это произошло в 2005-2007 годах, когда партия Качиньского «Право и справедливость» (ПиС) в последний раз управляла Польшей.

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