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Die fünf Lektionen der populistischen Macht

WARSCHAU – Jarosław Kaczyński, der eigentliche politische Führer Polens, wurde neben Donald Trump zu einem Avatar der populistischen Bedrohung des westlichen Demokratiemodells. Während wir auf Trumps Amtsantritt als US-Präsident am 20. Januar warten, lohnt es sich, das erste Jahr der populistischen Regierung in Polen zu betrachten. Die Ergebnisse haben sich entgegen der Erwartungen entwickelt.

Was die USA (und möglicherweise Frankreich und die Niederlande) laut konventioneller Sichtweise im Jahr 2017 erwartet, ist ein unberechenbarer Regent mit widersprüchlicher Politik, die in erster Linie den Reichen zugute kommt. Die Armen werden verlieren, da Populisten trotz ihrer Versprechen unfähig sind, die Produktionsjobs zu retten. Und da die Populisten angeblich keinen Plan haben, wie sie das Problem der Migration an der Wurzel packen können, werden weiterhin große Mengen Einwanderer und Flüchtlinge kommen. Am Ende brechen die unfähigen populistischen Regierungen zusammen. Ihre Parteiführer werden entweder des Amtes enthoben oder beim Versuch, wiedergewählt zu werden, scheitern.

Auch gegenüber Kaczyński gab es diese Erwartungen. Liberale Polen dachten, er werde die Reichen fördern, Chaos verursachen und sich selbst schnell ein Bein stellen – so wie bereits 2005-2007, als Kaczyńskis Partei für Recht und Gerechtigkeit (PiS) in Polen zuletzt an der Regierung war.

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