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Les cinq leçons d'un régime populiste

VARSOVIE – Jarosław Kaczyński, le leader de facto de la Pologne, est devenu, aux côtés de Donald Trump, un avatar de la menace populiste envers le modèle démocratique occidental. Alors que l'investiture de Trump au poste de Président des États-Unis aura lieu le 20 janvier, il vaut la peine de réfléchir sur la première année de régime populiste en Pologne. Les résultats sont contraires aux attentes.

L'interprétation classique de ce qui attend les États-Unis (et peut-être la France et les Pays-Bas), en 2017 est un dirigeant qui adopte des mesures contradictoires qui bénéficient principalement aux riches. Les pauvres vont perdre, parce que les populistes n'ont aucun espoir de rétablir les emplois dans l'industrie, malgré leurs promesses. Et l'afflux massif de migrants et de réfugiés va continuer, parce que les populistes n'ont aucun plan pour s'attaquer aux causes profondes du problème. En fin de compte, les gouvernements populistes, incapables de gouverner efficacement, vont s'effondrer et leurs dirigeants vont ou bien être frappés d'impeachment, ou bien ne seront pas réélus.

Kaczyński a été confronté à des attentes de ce genre. Les libéraux polonais pensaient qu'il allait travailler au profit des riches, créer le chaos et se prendre lui-même les pieds dans le tapis, ce qui s'est produit précisément en 2005-2007, lorsque le parti de Kaczyński Droit et Justice (PiS) a gouverné la Pologne.

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