Barrie Maguire

Más valor para el dinero gastado con el estímulo en los Estados Unidos

MILÁN – El período inmediatamente anterior a la crisis económica en los Estados Unidos se caracterizó por un excesivo apalancamiento en las entidades financieras y en el sector de la vivienda, lo que infló una burbuja de activos que en su momento explotó y dejó los balances dañados en grados diversos. El período posterior ha entrañado un ajuste del valor de los activos, el desapalancamiento y la rehabilitación de los balances, lo que ha originado la mayor tasa de ahorro actual, un importante descenso de la demanda interna y un marcado aumento del desempleo.

Así, pues, la cuestión más importante que ahora afrontan los Estados Unidos es la de si el continuo estímulo fiscal y monetario puede contribuir –como creen algunos– a enderezar la economía. Desde luego, en el punto culminante de la   crisis, el efecto combinado del estímulo fiscal y de un relajamiento monetario en gran escala tuvo un gran efecto para prevenir la congelación crediticia y limitar la caída en espiral de los precios de los activos y de la actividad económica real, pero ese período ha concluido.

La razón es sencilla: el consumo, durante el período anterior a la crisis, con   las ganancias de capital que resultaron ser en parte efímeras propició un período posterior a la crisis caracterizado por retracción del gasto, descenso de la demanda y mayor desempleo. La política anticíclica puede moderar esos efectos negativos, pero no puede reparar el daño ni acelerar la recuperación más allá de unos límites bastante estrictos.

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