Barrie Maguire

Меньше шума о стимулирующем воздействии американского доллара

МИЛАН. Преддверие экономического кризиса в США характеризовалось чрезмерным левереджем в финансовых учреждениях и в секторе бытовых потребителей, “надуванием пузыря” активов, который в конечном итоге взорвался и нанес до определенной степени ущерб балансовым отчетам. Последствиями стали пересмотр стоимости активов, делевередж и восстановление балансовых отчетов – результатом чего стали сегодняшние более высокие нормы сбережений, значительное снижение внутреннего спроса и резкий рост безработицы.

Поэтому самой важной проблемой, с которой сейчас сталкивается США, является вопрос, сможет ли финансовый и денежно-кредитный стимул помочь, как некоторые верят, исправить экономику. Несомненно, на пике кризиса комплексное воздействие финансового стимула и кредитно-денежной либерализации имели большое воздействие на предотвращение замораживания кредитов и ограничение спирального снижения стоимости активов и реальной экономической деятельности. Но тот период закончился.

Причина проста: предкризисный период развращающих прибылей от вложенного капитала, который оказался частично, по крайней мере, мимолетным явлением, привел к пост-кризисному периоду сдержанных расходов, сниженного потребления и высокой безработицы. Контр-цикличная политика может смягчить эти негативные воздействия, но она не сможет восполнить урон или ускорить выздоровление, нарушая при этом справедливые временные ограничения.

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