Paul Lachine

El fracaso de las finanzas de libre mercado

LONDRES – A cinco años del colapso de la banca de inversiones estadounidense Lehman Brothers, el mundo aún no ha resuelto el motivo fundamental de la subsiguiente crisis financiera: un exceso de deuda. Y por eso la recuperación económica ha avanzado mucho más lentamente de lo que cualquiera hubiera podido esperar (en algunos países, no ha llegado en absoluto).

La mayoría de los economistas, funcionarios de bancos centrales y reguladores no solo fueron incapaces de prever la crisis, sino que creyeron que la estabilidad financiera estaba asegurada mientras la inflación fuese baja y estable. Y, una vez que la crisis inmediata fue contenida, no logramos prever lo doloroso de sus consecuencias.

Las previsiones oficiales de la primavera de 2009 no anticiparon ni una recuperación lenta ni que la crisis inicial, esencialmente confinada a Estados Unidos y al Reino Unido, rápidamente alimentaría una crisis en la zona del euro. Y las fuerzas del mercado ni se acercaron a predecir las tasas de interés cercanas a cero durante cinco años (y la situación aún continúa).

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