Paul Lachine

O fracasso das finanças do mercado livre

LONDRES – Cinco anos após o colapso do banco de investimento dos EUA, Lehman Brothers, o mundo ainda não abordou a causa fundamental da crise financeira posterior - um excesso de dívida. E é por isso que a recuperação económica progrediu muito mais lentamente do que alguém esperava (em alguns países, nem sequer chegou a progredir).

A maioria dos economistas, banqueiros centrais e reguladores não apenas não conseguiram prever a crise, mas também acreditavam que a estabilidade financeira estava assegurada contando que a inflação fosse baixa e estável. E, assim que a crise imediata foi contida, não conseguimos prever o quão dolorosas seriam as suas consequências.

As previsões oficiais na Primavera de 2009 não anteciparam nem uma recuperação lenta, nem que a crise inicial, que estava essencialmente confinada aos Estados Unidos e ao Reino Unido, iria rapidamente alimentar uma crise que se repercutiu na zona euro. E as forças de mercado não se aproximaram nas previsões das taxas de juros quase a zero durante cinco anos (e ainda continua).

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