Paul Lachine

Das Versagen der freien Finanzmärkte

LONDON – Fünf Jahre nach dem Zusammenbruch der US-Investmentbank Lehman Brothers hat die Welt die grundlegende Ursache der anschließenden Finanzkrise immer noch nicht in Angriff genommen: die übermäßige Verschuldung. Und das ist der Grund, warum die wirtschaftliche Erholung wesentlich langsamer fortgeschritten ist als erwartet (in einigen Ländern gab es überhaupt keine).

Die meisten Wirtschaftswissenschaftler, Zentralbankchefs und Regulierungsbehörden haben nicht nur beim Vorhersehen der Krise versagt, sondern glaubten auch, dass die Stabilität der Finanzmärkte so lange sicher war, wie die Inflation niedrig und stabil blieb. Und sobald die akute Krise eingedämmt war, haben wir nicht erkannt, wie schmerzhaft ihre Folgen sein würden.

Offizielle Prognosen im Frühjahr 2009 sahen weder eine langsame Erholung voraus, noch dass die ursprüngliche Krise, die im Wesentlichen auf die Vereinigten Staaten und Großbritannien beschränkt war, bald eine Folgekrise in der Eurozone auslösen würde. Zudem prognostizierten die Marktkräfte nicht einmal ansatzweise Zinssätze nahe null für fünf Jahre (und weitere folgen).

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