Paul Lachine

L’échec de la finance de libre marché

LONDRES – Cinq ans après l’effondrement de la banque d’investissement américaine Lehman Brothers, le monde n’a toujours pas axé ses efforts sur la cause fondamentale de la crise financière qu’engendra l’événement – un excès d’endettement. Et c’est pourquoi la reprise économique s’est opérée de manière beaucoup plus lente que prévue (n’ayant tout simplement pas eu lieu dans certains États).

Non seulement la plupart des économistes, banquiers centraux et régulateurs n’ont pas vu arriver la crise, mais ils ont également commis l’erreur d’estimer que la stabilité financière serait garantie tant que l’inflation demeurerait faible et stable. Par la suite, une fois contenue la crise la plus immédiate, nous avons tous échoué à prévoir combien ses retombées seraient douloureuses.

Les prévisions officielles formulées au printemps 2009 n’évoquèrent ni la lenteur future de la reprise, ni le fait que la crise initiale – essentiellement confinée aux États-Unis et au Royaume-Uni – engendrerait rapidement dans la zone euro une crise à effet d’entraînement. Quant aux forces du marché, elles n’auraient jamais imaginé les taux d’intérêt proches de zéro que nous constatons depuis désormais cinq ans (et le compteur continue de tourner).

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