El sueño chino de India

SEÚL – En los últimos años, ambos China e India surgieron como superpotencias económicas mundiales, con China en el liderato. Pero, debido a la desaceleración del crecimiento de China y la necesidad, cada vez más aguda, de cambios estructurales, uno se pregunta: ¿podrá India mediante los esfuerzos de reforma económica del nuevo primer ministro de India, Narendra Modi, alcanzar a China?

Desde la década de 1980, China ha experimentado un crecimiento económico sin precedentes impulsado por una abundante mano de obra de bajo costo y altas tasas de ahorro y de inversión, sustanciales reformas de mercado, políticas orientadas hacia el exterior, y una gestión macroeconómica prudente. En la actualidad, sus líderes esperan alcanzar una situación de altos ingresos al desarrollar industrias que sean tecnológicamente más sofisticadas.

El desempeño económico de India ha sido menos notable. El crecimiento económico comenzó a acelerarse dramáticamente a principios de la década de 1990, a consecuencia de la liberalización comercial y de otras reformas económicas. Luego las reformas se estancaron, los déficits fiscales y de cuenta corriente se dispararon, y el crecimiento anual del PIB cayó a un nivel entre el 4 a 5%.

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