Il sogno cinese dell’India

SEUL – Negli ultimi anni, la Cina e l’India sono emerse entrambe come superpotenze economiche mondiali, con la Cina in testa. Ma dato il rallentamento della crescita cinese e la necessità di cambiamento strutturale sempre più pressante, gli sforzi di riforma economica profusi dal nuovo primo ministro indiano, Narendra Modi, consentiranno al paese di allinearsi?

Dagli anni 80 la Cina vive una crescita economica senza precedenti, alimentata dalla massiccia manodopera a basso costo, dagli elevati tassi di risparmio e di investimento, da profonde riforme di mercato, da politiche orientate all’esterno e da una prudente gestione macroeconomica. I suoi leader ora sperano di raggiungere lo stato di reddito alto sviluppando settori più tecnologici e sofisticati.

Le performance economiche dell’India sono state meno ragguardevoli. La crescita economica ha iniziato ad accelerare drasticamente all’inizio degli anni 90, grazie alla liberalizzazione commerciale e ad altre riforme economiche. Poi si è registrato uno stallo delle riforme, un incremento del deficit fiscale e del deficit di conto corrente e un decremento della crescita annua del Pil a 4-5%.

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