Indiens chinesische Träume

SEOUL – In den letzten Jahren haben sich China und Indien zu globalen Wirtschaftssupermächten entwickelt, wobei China vor Indien liegt. Doch angesichts der Wachstumsverlangsamung und der zunehmend akut werdenden Notwendigkeit eines Strukturwandels in China stellt sich die Frage, ob die wirtschaftlichen Reformbestrebungen des neuen indischen Premierministers Narendra Modi es dem Land ermöglichen werden, diesen Rückstand aufzuholen.

Aufgrund reichlich vorhandener kostengünstiger Arbeitskräfte, hoher Spar- und Investitionsquoten, substanzieller Marktreformen, nach außen orientierter Politik und umsichtiger makroökonomischer Steuerung weist China seit den 1980er Jahren ein beispielloses Wirtschaftswachstum auf. Die Führung hofft nun, durch die Entwicklung technologisch anspruchsvoller Branchen den Status eines Landes hohen Einkommens zu erreichen. 

Die Wirtschaftsleistung Indiens hingegen war weniger bemerkenswert. Aufgrund der Handelsliberalisierung und anderer wirtschaftlicher Reformen begann sich das Wirtschaftswachstum in den frühen 1990er Jahren dramatisch zu beschleunigen. Dann gerieten die Reformen allerdings ins Stocken, die Haushalts- und Leistungsbilanz-Defizite stiegen sprunghaft an und das jährliche BIP-Wachstum sank auf 4 bis 5 Prozent.

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