Reti di sicurezza finanziaria per l’Asia

SEOUL – Le economie emergenti devono far fronte a un notevole livello di incertezza e a seri rischi al ribasso. Un’importante fonte di instabilità è l’imminente inversione di rotta della Federal Reserve americana sul fronte della politica monetaria espansionistica – la cui prospettiva sta generando volatilità nei mercati finanziari e sta minacciando di ostacolare la crescita delle economie emergenti.

La Fed ha segnalato che il suo tasso di fondi federali resterà prossimo allo 0%, almeno fino a quando la disoccupazione non supererà il 6,5% e le aspettative di inflazione non resteranno ben ancorate. Ma quando e in che modo la Fed inizierà ad inasprire la politica monetaria resta poco chiaro. Ciò è certo è che, prendendo questa decisione, la Fed non prenderà in considerazione gli effetti di ricaduta della sua politica sul resto del mondo, lasciando policy maker e banchieri centrali dei Paesi in balia dei danni.

Una politica monetaria americana più rigida potrebbe intensificare la riduzione globale di credito, così incrementando la pressione sui sistemi economici e finanziari dell’Asia. L’iper-reazione e il comportamento di investimento (il cosiddetto “comportamento del gregge”) da parte degli operatori di mercato potrebbero scatenare un’improvvisa inversione del flusso di capitali in entrata, con una severa carenza di dollari – come accadde nel 1997 e nel 2008 – mettendo sotto pressione banche e società asiatiche.

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