Des filets de sécurité financière pour l’Asie

SEOUL – Les économies émergentes doivent faire face à d’incontestables incertitudes et à de sérieux risques de repli. Une des principales raisons d’instabilité est l’inversion envisagée de la politique monétaire expansionniste de la Réserve Fédérale – une perspective qui entraine une volatilité des marchés financiers partout dans le monde et qui menace de perturber la croissance des économies émergentes.

La Fed a indiqué que le taux de ses fonds fédéraux sera maintenu aux alentours de 0%, au moins aussi longtemps que le chômage dépassera 6,5% et que les perspectives d’inflation demeureront bien ancrées. Mais il est difficile de dire quand et comment la Fed commencera à resserrer sa politique monétaire. Une chose est sûre : la décision de la Fed fera fi des débordements de sa politique sur le reste du monde, laissant aux responsables politiques et aux banques centrales des pays affectés la charge d’en gérer les répercussions.

Une politique monétaire américaine resserrée pourrait intensifier la pénurie globale de crédit, augmentant ainsi la pression sur les systèmes économiques et financiers asiatiques. Les acteurs du marché pourraient réagir de manière excessive et grégaire, déclenchant un inversement soudain des flux de capitaux, avec une pénurie de dollars – comme ce fut le cas en 1997 et en 2008 – qui mettrait à rude épreuve les banques et les entreprises asiatiques.

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