شبكات أمان مالية من أجل آسيا

سول ــ تواجه الاقتصادات الناشئة حالة من عدم اليقين الشديد فضلاً عن مخاطر الجانب السلبي الجسيمة. ومن بين مصادر عدم الاستقرار الكبرى الانعكاس المنتظر لاتجاه السياسة النقدية التوسعية التي انتهجها بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأميركي ــ مثل هذه التوقعات تعمل على توليد التقلبات في الأسواق المالية العالمية وتهدد بتعطيل النمو في الاقتصادات الناشئة.

وقد أشار بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأميركي إلى أن سعر الفائدة على الأموال الفيدرالية سوف يظل قرب الصفر في المائة، على الأقل ما دام معدل البطالة يتجاوز 6.5% وما دامت توقعات التضخم ثابتة. ولكن يظل من غير الواضح متى وكيف سوف يبدأ بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي في تشديد السياسة النقدية. والأمر المؤكد هو أن البنك عندما يتخذ قراره لن يضع في اعتباره التأثيرات غير المباشرة التي قد تتحملها بقية بلدان العالم نتيجة لسياساته، وهذا يعني أن صناع السياسات ومحافظي البنوك المركزية في البلدان المتضررة سوف يترك لهم التعامل مع التداعيات.

إن تشديد السياسة النقدية في الولايات المتحدة قد يؤدي إلى تفاقم العجز في الائتمان العالمي، فيزيد بالتالي من الضغوط المفروضة على الأنظمة الاقتصادية والمالية في آسيا. وقد تؤدي ردود الأفعال المتطرفة وسلوك القطيع من قِبَل المشاركين في الأسواق إلى توليد تحول مفاجئ في اتجاه تدفقات رأس المال، مع نقص شديد في الدولارات ــ كما حدث في عام 1997 ثم في عام 2008 ــ يفضي إلى تعريض البنوك والشركات الآسيوية لقدر عظيم من الإجهاد.

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