Un momento de juicio y suplicio para el Líbano

ESTAMBUL – Cuando el Líbano se prepara para el posible procesamiento de los miembros de Hezbolá participantes en el asesinato del ex Primer Ministro Rafik Hariri, la economía del país se tambalea. El informe de la misión del Fondo Monetario Internacional de marzo de 2009, tras señalar los 30 años de tumulto político crónico de ese país, concluyó que “el Líbano seguirá siendo vulnerable a las sacudidas durante muchos años” por venir. Si bien acogía con beneplácito el plan de acción anticrisis formulado por el Gobierno en aquel momento, el Fondo no se hacía ilusiones sobre que fuera a estar a la altura de la tarea.

Sin embargo, en un momento posterior de ese mismo año el gobierno de Saad Hariri, hijo de Rafik Hariri, infundió una nueva esperanza, lo que movió al FMI a declarar que había “brindado una nueva oportunidad para vigorizar las reformas económicas”, pero el éxito de las reformas previstas depende en gran medida de la cooperación entre los principales grupos políticos del Líbano –suníes y chiíes–, cosa que hasta ahora no ha abundado precisamente.

De hecho, la influencia de potencias exteriores sigue siendo una parte fundamental de la ecuación. La reunión celebrada el pasado mes de julio en Beirut entre el Presidente de Siria, al-Asad, y el rey Abdulá de Arabia Saudí fue considerada una señal de aproximación entre dos antagonistas suníes, pero uno de sus fines era el de obtener el apoyo de Hezbolá, apoyado por Siria, a un programa de recuperación del estilo del FMI. Sigue sin estar claro si se consiguió o no dicho fin.

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