Ливан: время испытаний

СТАМБУЛ. Пока Ливан готовится к возможным обвинениям боевиков Хезболлы за убийство бывшего премьер-министра Рафика Харири, состояние экономики страны ухудшается. В докладе миссии Международного валютного фонда в марте 2009 года были омечены 30 лет хронических политических беспорядков в стране, а также сделано заключение, что “Ливан останется уязвимым к шокам на протяжении многих предстоящих лет”. Приветствуя план антикризисных действий правительства, Фонд, в то же время, не испытывал иллюзий по поводу того, что оно выполнит свою задачу.

Однако чуть позже в этом году правительство Саади Харири, сына Рафика Харири, привнесло новую надежду, что побудило МВФ объявить, что он “открыл новое окно возможностей для придания силы экономическим реформам”. Но успех запланированных реформ сильно зависит от сотрудничества между основными политическими группами Ливана, суннитами и шиитами, но до сих пор сдвигов в этой области мало.

Действительно, влияние внешних сил остается центральной частью уравнения. Встреча в июле прошлого года в Бейруте президента Сирии Аль-Ассада и Саудовского короля Абдулы была воспринята как знак возобновления дружеских отношений между двумя суннитскими антагонистами. Но одной из ее целей было получение поддержки у Хезболлы (которую, в свою очередь, поддерживает Сирия) программы экономического выздоровления в стиле МВФ. До сих пор не понятно, была или не была достигнута эта цель.

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