Le nouveau statu-quo libanais

BEYROUTH – L'insurrection armée du Hezbollah en mai dernier à Beyrouth et dans d'autres régions du Liban a renforcé ce mouvement et affaibli le gouvernement libanais soutenu par l'Occident. Si cette insurrection a été un coup supplémentaire quant à l'espoir que le pays se transforme en un véritable Etat souverain, elle s'est aussi soldée par un nouvel accord politique négocié à Doha au Qatar. Il prévoit après une longue impasse une élection présidentielle, la formation d'un nouveau gouvernement d'unité nationale, une nouvelle loi électorale et le retour à un dialogue national portant sur les relations entre l'Etat et les acteurs non-étatiques, notamment le Hezbollah.

Les spéculations vont bon train sur les raisons qui ont poussé le gouvernement à renvoyer le responsable pro-Hezbollah de la sécurité de l'aéroport et à remettre en question le réseau de communication privé du Hezbollah, les deux éléments à l'origine de la confrontation. Depuis longtemps, le gouvernement libanais est soumis à une pression internationale pour qu'il honore au moins quelques-uns de ses engagements visant à contenir le Hezbollah. Les autorités libanaises ont sans doute estimé à tort que le Hezbollah ne régirait que de manière limitée et surtout qu'il ne risquerait pas des affrontements entre chiites et sunnites à Beyrouth.

Les mêmes questions se posent quant à la décision du Hezbollah de lancer une action à grande échelle, au risque de déclencher des affrontements intercommunautaires et d'y perdre son autorité morale. Mais pour l'essentiel, il a atteint ses objectifs. Du point de vue militaire, il a étouffé dans l'œuf le développement de toute milice armée à Beyrouth Ouest qui pourrait s'opposer au  mouvement de ses troupes au-delà de la banlieue sud. Il a également pris le contrôle des principales routes au sud et à l'est de la ville au détriment du dirigeant druze Walid Jumblat et assuré son accès à l'aéroport et aux ports de la capitale.

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