Beruit Skyline Anwar Amro/Getty Images

Сможет ли Ливан избежать сырьевого проклятья?

БЕЙРУТ – После двух с половиной лет без президента, Парламент Ливана избрал на этот пост Мишель Аун. Теперь, Ливан может переключить свое внимание на добычу нефти и газа, с возрастающими ожиданиями регулирующих органов – граничащих с иррациональной эйфорией – что непредвиденные энергоресурсы дадут толчок экономике страны, которая пострадала в результате плохого политического и экономического управления и сопутствующих эффектов гражданской войны в Сирии.

Потенциал углеводородных ресурсов Ливана действительно мог бы преобразовать страну, а также предоставить модель для подражания другим производителям энергии на Ближнем Востоке. Но регулирующие органы должны помнить о четырех основных рисках. Во-первых, цены на нефть и газ являются неустойчивыми, а ископаемые виды топлива, в целом имеют неопределенное будущее. С июня 2014 года, цены на нефть и газ снизились примерно на 60%, и маловероятно, что они восстановятся в среднесрочной перспективе. Мы живем в эпоху “новой нормальной” нефти, определяемой изобилием альтернативных источников энергии.

Во-вторых, объем извлекаемых энергоресурсов Ливана остается неопределенным. Не менее важно, что даже при самых оптимистических сценариях, потенциал страны по управлению добычей нефти и газа, производству и распределению также неопределен.

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