Beruit Skyline Anwar Amro/Getty Images

Kann der Libanon dem Ressourcenfluch entkommen?

BEIRUT – Nach zweieinhalb Jahren ohne Präsident hat das libanesische Parlament Michel Aoun in das Amt gewählt. Nun kann der Libanon seine Aufmerksamkeit der Öl- und Gasproduktion zuwenden, mit durchaus hohen – an irrationalen Überschwang grenzenden -  Erwartungen der politischen Entscheidungsträger, dass der Geldsegen aus dem Energiesektor die Wirtschaft des Landes ankurbeln wird, die unter schlechter wirtschaftlicher und politischer Führung ebenso litt wie unter den Auswirkungen des Bürgerkriegs im Syrien.

Der potenzielle Wohlstand aufgrund der Erdöl- und Erdgasvorkommen könnte das Land in der Tat verändern und auch als Beispiel für andere Energieproduzenten im Nahen Osten dienen. Dennoch müssen die politischen Entscheidungsträger vier größere Risiken im Auge behalten. Zunächst gilt es zu beachten, dass Öl- und Gaspreise Schwankungen unterliegen und fossilen Brennstoffen generell eine unsichere Zukunft bevorsteht. Seit Juni 2014 sind die Öl- und Gaspreise um etwa 60 Prozent gefallen und es ist unwahrscheinlich, dass es mittelfristig zu einer Erholung kommt. Wir befinden uns im Zeitalter eines „neuen Normalzustandes“ bei Öl, der durch reichlich vorhandene alternative Energiequellen gekennzeichnet ist.

Zweitens ist das Ausmaß der förderbaren Energiereserven im Libanon ungewiss. Gleichermaßen von Bedeutung, aber ebenso ungewiss ist auch die Fähigkeit des Landes, Förderung, Produktion und Vertrieb von Öl- und Gas zu bewältigen.

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