Aprendiendo del Líbano

NUEVA YORK – Después de observar el colapso del gobierno del Líbano la semana pasada, cuesta no pensar en los esfuerzos por reconstruir un Irak estable. Los dos países tienen tanto en común. Ambos son democracias volátiles donde cualquier cuestión política puede provocar no sólo un debate intenso, sino también la amenaza de violencia.

Ambos países tienen una relativa libertad de expresión, al menos en relación a sus vecinos árabes, y una multitud de partidos políticos que siempre están dispuestos a usarla. Cada uno de ellos enfrenta un mayor riesgo de manipulación desde afuera que otros países en la región.

Irak y el Líbano también son los países más étnica y religiosamente diversos del mundo árabe. Si bien el Líbano no ha realizado un censo confiable en décadas, se estima que su población está compuesta por un 30% de musulmanes sunitas, un 30% de musulmanes chiitas y un 30% de cristianos, mientras que los drusos y otros conforman el resto. En Irak, aproximadamente el 60% son chiitas, el 20% son árabes sunitas y el 20% son kurdos, que son principalmente sunitas. En ambos países, los representantes de cada uno de estos grupos exigen una sustancial influencia política.

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