Les enseignements que l’Irak peut retirer du Liban

NEW YORK – La chute du gouvernement libanais la semaine dernière invite immanquablement à s’interroger sur les tentatives de construction d’un Irak stable. Les deux pays ont énormément de points communs. Tous deux sont des démocraties fragiles, où toute controverse politique peut se traduire non seulement par des débats enflammés, mais également par le risque d’actions violentes.

Chacun de ces pays bénéficie d’une certaine liberté d’expression, en tous cas par rapport aux pays arabes voisins, et est caractérisé par une multitude de partis politiques prêts à en faire usage. Et ils sont plus vulnérables à la manipulation par des forces extérieures que les autres pays de la région.

L’Irak et le Liban sont aussi les pays les plus variés du monde arabe aux plans ethnique et religieux. Bien que le Liban n’ait pas organisé de recensement fiable depuis des décennies, sa population se décomposerait en 30 pour cent de musulmans chiites, 30 pour cent de musulmans sunnites, 30 pour cent de chrétiens et de 10 pour cent de Druzes. L’Irak est lui peuplé par 60 pour cent de chiites, 20 pour cent de sunnites et 20 pour cent de Kurdes, qui sont majoritairement sunnites. Dans les deux pays, les représentants de chacun de ces groupes cherchent à occuper une place politique prépondérante.

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