Poučení z Libanonu

NEW YORK – Poté, co jsme minulý týden sledovali pád libanonské vlády, lze jen těžko nemyslet na úsilí o vybudování stabilního Iráku. Obě země mají mnoho společného. Obě jsou rozkolísanými demokraciemi, kde může jakákoliv politická otázka vyvolat nejen intenzivní debatu, ale i hrozbu násilí.

Obě země mají relativní svobodu slova, přinejmenším ve srovnání se svými arabskými sousedy, a také vějíř politických stran, které jsou vždy připraveny tuto svobodu využít. A oběma zemím hrozí vyšší riziko manipulace zvenčí než jiným státům v regionu.

Irák a Libanon se také řadí k etnicky a nábožensky nejrozmanitějším zemím v arabském světě. Ačkoliv Libanon několik desítek let neprovedl spolehlivé sčítání lidu, předpokládá se, že jeho obyvatelstvo tvoří zhruba 30% sunnitských muslimů, 30% šíitských muslimů a 30% křesťanů, přičemž zbytek představují drúzové a další skupiny. V Iráku žije asi 60% šíitů, 20% tvoří sunnitští Arabové a 20% Kurdové, z nichž je většina sunnitů. V obou zemích požadují zástupci každé z těchto skupin značný politický vliv.

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