Aus Krisen lernen

PRINCETON – Krisen, insbesondere  sehr schwere Krisen, sind oft Lernchancen. Leider scheint die Welt bisher sehr wenig aus der jüngsten Finanzkrise gelernt zu haben. Tatsächlich ist die Situation heute genauso gefährlich wie 2007: die USA sind jetzt in höchster Sorge über ihre kraftlose wirtschaftliche Erholung, Europa lähmt die Angst um das Überleben der Währungsunion, und die Schwellenländer haben mit Spekulationsblasen zu kämpfen.

Um aus einer Krise zu lernen, muss man zunächst einmal analysieren, was schief gelaufen ist. Aber es geht auch darum, Lösungen zu finden. Als Gemeinschaft haben wir den ersten Teil sehr gut gemacht, den zweiten sehr schlecht.

Die meisten Analysen der Finanzkrise nach 2007 machen fünf Ursachen für Instabilität aus. Erstens wurde die Krise ausgelöst durch die Besonderheiten des US-amerikanischen Immobilienmarktes, durch staatliche Anreize für  generelles Eigentum von Immobilien und durch die unvorsichtige Kreditvergabe von Banken.

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