Wirtschaftliche Dynamik erlernen

Warum leiden manche der am höchsten entwickelten Volkswirtschaften - wie Frankreich, Deutschland, Italien und Japan - unter stagnierendem Wachstum und hohen Arbeitslosenzahlen? Oder, noch grundsätzlicher, warum gelingt es diesen Ländern nicht, vor allem in den zukunftsbestimmenden Hochtechnologiebereichen, wirtschaftliche Führerschaft und Innovationsbereitschaft an den Tag zu legen, obwohl man genau das aufgrund ihrer Geschichte von ihnen erwarten würde?

Die schlechte Wirtschaftsleistung in diesen Ländern ist umso rätselhafter angesichts der dramatischen Geburtenrückgänge in den letzten Jahrzehnten. Die Bevölkerungspyramiden zeigen, dass der größte Bevölkerungsteil aus Menschen mittleren Alters in ihren produktivsten Jahren besteht, die die Last der Kindererziehung größtenteils schon hinter sich haben. Ihr Lebensstandard pro Kopf sollte daher eigentlich wesentlich höher sein als der in den USA, wo es massenhaft zu betreuende Kinder gibt und wo neue Investitionen gemacht werden müssen, damit das Kapitalwachstum mit dem der Bevölkerung Schritt hält.

Was heute von Vorteil ist, könnte sich morgen selbstverständlich als Nachteil erweisen. Europa und Japan werden mit massiven demographischen Problemen konfrontiert sein, wenn die Bevölkerungspyramide von alten Menschen dominiert wird, womit der vorübergehende demographische Vorteil gegenüber den USA von heute zunichte gemacht wird. Aber das sind nicht die momentanen Probleme dieser Volkswirtschaften.

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