Paul Lachine

Gobernanza global sin líderes

CAMBRIDGE.– La economía mundial está ingresando en una nueva fase, en la cual lograr la cooperación global será cada vez más difícil. Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea, complicados por la carga de sus grandes deudas y bajo crecimiento –y por lo tanto, preocupados por cuestiones internas–, ya no son capaces de fijar las reglas mundiales y esperar que los demás se adecuen a ellas.

Sumándose a esta tendencia, las potencias en ascenso, como China e India, valoran otorgan un gran valor a la soberanía nacional y la no interferencia en las cuestiones internas. Esto las torna reticentes a la hora de aceptar normas internacionales (o a exigir que otros cumplan ese tipo de regulaciones) y, por lo tanto, es poco probable que inviertan en instituciones multilaterales como lo hizo EE.& UU. pasada la Segunda Guerra Mundial.

Como resultado, la oferta de liderazgo y cooperación globales continuará escasa, lo que exigirá una respuesta cuidadosamente calibrada en la gobernanza de la economía mundial –específicamente, un conjunto de reglas más limitado que reconozca la diversidad de las circunstancias nacionales y las demandas de autonomía en las políticas. Pero las discusiones en el G-20, la Organización Mundial del Comercio y otros foros multilaterales continuaron como si el remedio adecuado fuese más de lo mismo: más reglas, más armonización, y más disciplina en las políticas nacionales.

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