Paul Lachine

Governação mundial sem liderança

CAMBRIDGE - A economia mundial está a entrar numa nova fase, na qual o alcance da cooperação global tornar-se-á cada vez mais difícil. Os Estados Unidos e a União Europeia, agora sobrecarregados pelo elevado endividamento e o baixo crescimento - e, portanto, preocupados com questões internas - já não são mais capazes de definir regras mundiais e esperar que outros alinhem.

A agravar esta tendência, potências emergentes, como a China e a Índia, atribuem muita importância à soberania nacional e à não interferência em assuntos internos. Isso faz com que não estejam dispostas a submeter-se a regras internacionais (ou a exigir que outros respeitem tais regras) – sendo assim improvável que invistam em instituições multilaterais, tal como os EUA fizeram no rescaldo da II Guerra Mundial.

Como resultado, a liderança e a cooperação mundial permanecerão com uma oferta muito limitada, exigindo uma resposta cuidadosamente ponderada na governação da economia mundial - mais especificamente, um magro conjunto de regras que reconheça a diversidade das circunstâncias e exigências nacionais em prol de uma autonomia política. Mas as discussões do G-20, da Organização Mundial do Comércio e de outras instâncias multilaterais prosseguem como se o remédio santo fosse mais do mesmo - mais regras, mais harmonização e mais disciplina nas políticas nacionais.

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