Paul Lachine

La governance globale senza leader

CAMBRIDGE – L’economia mondiale sta entrando in una fase nuova in cui la cooperazione globale sarà ancor più difficile. Gli Stati Uniti e l’Unione europea, al& momento oppresse dal debito elevato e da una crescita lenta e quindi focalizzate su preoccupanti questioni interne, non sono più in grado di dettare le regole globali e si aspettano che gli altri paesi si adeguino.

A peggiorare questa tendenza ci sono le due potenze in ascesa, Cina ed India, che danno grande importanza alla sovranità nazionale e ad una politica di non interferenza negli affari interni e che non sono pertanto disponibili a sottomettersi alle regole internazionali (o a richiedere ad altri paesi di rispettare tali regole). Sarà, quindi, poco probabile che decidano di investire nelle istituzioni multilaterali come fecero gli Stati Uniti nel dopoguerra della Seconda Guerra Mondiale.

Di conseguenza, la leadership e la cooperazione globale rimarranno deboli e avranno bisogno di una risposta attentamente calibrata da parte della governance dell’economia mondiale, nello specifico di un set di regole più snelle che riconosca la diversità dei contesti nazionali e che richieda autonomia politica. Ma i dibattiti in seno al G-20, all’Organizzazione Mondiale del Commercio e ad altri forum multilaterali proseguono come se il rimedio giusto fosse dettato sempre dagli stessi elementi: più regole, più armonizzazione e più disciplina sulle politiche nazionali.

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