وضع خطط لمواجهة الرئيسة لوبان

Apr 19, 2017 Mark Leonard

لندن - بعد تصويت المملكة المتحدة الفجائي لترك الاتحاد الأوروبي وفوز دونالد ترامب غير المتوقع في الانتخابات الرئاسية الأمريكية العام الماضي، قد يظن المرء أن المسؤولين الأوروبيين وضعوا خطط طوارئ مفصلة في حالة انتصار رئيسة الجبهة الوطنية اليمينية المتطرفة لوبان في الانتخابات الرئاسية الفرنسية المقبلة. لا شيء حدث من هذا القبيل.

إن فكرة تولي لوبان الرئاسة مرعبة جدا، على ما يبدو، مما يشكل تهديدا لمستقبل أوروبا، ولا يزال الكثيرون لا يقبلونها، فبالأحرى التخطيط لها. ولكن هذا التهديد يستوجب على أوروبا معالجة جدية لإمكانية فوزها، ولو كان ذلك من غير المحتمل.

وما من شك أنه بصفتها رئيسة لفرنسا، يمكن أن تلحق لوبان أضرارا جسيمة بالمشروع الأوروبي. وقالت إنها وضعت نفسها على نقيض المستشارة الألمانية انجيلا ميركل، وتعهدت بمغادرة منطقة شينغن ومنطقة اليورو. أما بالنسبة للاتحاد الأوروبي نفسه، فإنها تعد بأن تسير على خطى المملكة المتحدة، وإعادة التفاوض على شروط عضوية بلدها، ومن ثم استدعاء استفتاء. وإذا رفض الاتحاد الأوروبي الإصلاحات التي تطلبها لوبان، فسوف تقوم بحملة لخروج فرنسا من الاتحاد (فريكست).

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 14 in all 14 Comments on this article

Barry Rosenfeld Apr 26, 2017

"The thought of President Le Pen is so terrifying, it seems, posing such a threat to the future of Europe ... ." Is Leonard saying that Europe has no future if Le Pen becomes the President of France? It might be that the "Europe" that has been promoted by the now EU has no future if the UK and France decide they can do better.

This article is yet another example of the shallow opinions published by PS that pose as analysis because of the formal credentials of the author. It is the "European project," a sclerotic and undemocratic mechanism based on economic and financial policies inspired by a neoliberal ideology, whose future is in jeopardy.

The worst case scenario for the EU would be to re-evaluate its raison d'etre and begin to find means to re-invigorate itself. The dead hand of bureaucracy has ruled for far too long. New thinking and less threats are in order now.
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william etheridge Apr 24, 2017

This story is a beat up, misleading headline used to hook attention.
Looking at past French opinion polls there is a close correlation with election results, both first and second rounds.
Thus the latest first round polls read Macron 24%, Le Pen 22%, Fillon 20% and Melenchon 19%.
Presto, Macron and Le Pen go through.
But round two.Macron has a thumping poll lead over Le Pen 64/36.
She wont be elected, now or later.
Intresting too Trump would not have been elected by the French system.
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Michael Hullevad Apr 23, 2017

t does not matter who wins. Macron or Le Pen will face a hostile parliament, neither of them have a party organisation that can insure a majority. So it will be a cohabitation leading nowhere. France have to prepare for 5 more years of getting no reforms? Forget reforming the 4 pillars of the EU, they are written in stone.
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jagjeet sinha Apr 21, 2017

WHEN BRUSSELS CANNOT DELIVER BREAD - THE BASTILLE IN PARIS WILL BE STORMED
The President of France is elected by the People on Champs Elysee - not by Brussels or Europe.
The bombs that go off on Champs Elysee - cannot be prevented by Brussels or Europe.
The Bastille is not in Brussels to storm - The only Bastille they can storm is in Paris.
If bombs continue to blow up Champs Elysee - the People of France will storm The Bastille.
President LePen becomes The only hope - when Brussels cannot deliver the "bread" they need.
The Bourbons in Brussels with their "biscuits" - are unperturbed by the need for "bread" in Paris.
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Peter Schaeffer Apr 20, 2017

Marine Le Pen is the last and best hope of the French people. She is a modern-day Joan of Arc sent to liberate France from neoliberal tyranny and foreign domination. In the end, the people of France will either embrace her or end up slaves of ISIS. Young people in France have recognized that she is their last hope. LGBT folks in France are rallying to her because the alternative is Orlando. French Jews are rallying to her because Hollande, Macron, Fillon, and Mélenchon mean Toulouse and Montauban forever.

Marine Le Pen is the hope, the light, and the future of France. All decent people should support her.
- Steve Hurst Apr 21, 2017
  
  Peter
  
  Worth noting that Joan of Arc was rewarded by being burnt at the stake as she was judged to be dangerous to the status quo having delivered her immediate relief to the attack on the status quo
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Bernhard Kopp Apr 20, 2017

France would probably survive 5 years of a Le Pen presidency. It is indeed uncertain that it would be any worse for France that what is has experienced since 1982. For the EU, it might be the desperately needed shock to redefine the EU in such a way that EU-27 can work together productively in arrangements where the total is greater than the sum of its parts. A better EU is thinkable. Whether or not it will be possible depends on the political will.
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Peter Schaeffer Apr 20, 2017

From Wolfgang Münchau in the FT

"The elite’s Marie Antoinette moment - Right response is to focus on the financial sector and inequality

Some revolutions could have been avoided if the old guard had only refrained from provocation. There is no proof of a “let them eat cake” incident. But this is the kind of thing Marie Antoinette could have said. It rings true. The Bourbons were hard to beat as the quintessential out-of-touch establishment.

They have competition now.

Our global liberal democratic establishment is behaving in much the same way. At a time when Britain has voted to leave the EU, when Donald Trump has been elected US president, and Marine Le Pen is marching towards the Elysée Palace, we — the gatekeepers of the global liberal order — keep on doubling down. "

How about "Planning for President Le Pen" by embracing her rather sensible ideas? The Euro is an obvious failure. Get rid of it. Schengen has failed spectacularly. Get rid it. Europe is being overrun by "migrants". Stop them.
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Emanuel Müller Apr 20, 2017

A "european project" that doesn't exclude France can probably only stay stuck in a state of informal racism, classism and sexism and be nothing but a shell of a civilisation worth mentioning. France should go on play it's self appointed civilizing mission in Africa, separate from the rest of Europe.
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j. von Hettlingen Apr 19, 2017

Mark Leonard urges EU leaders - ahead of this week's presidential election in France - to entertain the worst-case scenario and not to rely too much on pollsters and sleepwalk into another crisis. However unlikely Marine Le Pen's win may be, it would be wise for EU leaders to make contingency plans and contemplate working with her new government, by responding to her "request to renegotiate the terms of France’s EU membership, and to what extent they should resist her efforts to remove France from the rest of Europe" - like the Eurozone.
Should Le Pen - against the odds - become the next president, she would still end up struggling "to gain a parliamentary majority" in a political system known in France as "cohabitation." Since her Front National isn't a mainstream party and has only 2 out of 577 seats in the parliament, and as it's unlikely that her party will win an outright majority in the June parliamentary election, she would have to deal with a hostile parliament and prime minister. The author urges EU leaders "to form an informal coalition with those elements of the French government" and weather the storm.
It is true that "from the EU’s perspective, a hostile president in France, the country of Jean Monnet, would be far more destructive than Brexit." Monnet ( 1888-1979), political economist and diplomat, is often seen as the main architect of post-war European integration. He, who said that Europe should be built on its crises, had dreamt of a full political union, that came to inspire future leaders in France and Germany - two former enemies in history - to mover closer and realise the European ideal together. Hence, France is strategically vital for the European project.
Dominique Moisi, the French political scientist and writer said "the composed and politically savvy Le Pen may be even more dangerous than the erratic political novice currently occupying the White House." She has distanced herself from her father, Jean-Marie - a Holocaust denier - and launched a "grand strategy, shaped by her ally Florian Philippot, that aims to broaden the Front’s appeal to key groups that previously avoided it, especially civil servants, women, and Catholics."
Reinventing her father's fascist party, Philippot claims that the National Front is “neither left nor right.” Apart from politicking he is also busy laying "the groundwork" for a polity. According to the author, Philippot "is seeking to build a new political elite to serve in a National Front government and help overcome resistance to the party’s agenda from France’s 'deep state.' And he has been exploring what the president can and cannot do – including calling referenda – without permission from parliament."
Howver even if Le Pen were elected, she would still face the daunting task that her predecessors failed in recent decades - economic reforms. She may be be able to get tough on immigrants, but there is no way that she can bring France's economy back on its feet with her nativist and protectionist agenda, and policies like retirement age fixed at 60 and 35-hour week. She ought to know that it will be difficult to tame the rebellious spirit of her fellow citizens and persuade them to brace for hardships and uncertainty.
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lirain urreiztieta Apr 19, 2017

So once the mandarins of Brussels became firmly ensconced in their plush armchairs, they did what mandarins do, they became fat and complacent and produced a steady stream of rules for the plebes. Yes they should be terrified. While some may see her as the antithesis of Tante Merkel, others think of Joan of Arc.
It is going to be fun to watch.
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Steve Hurst Apr 19, 2017

Free unhindered movement across borders has always been a issue in Europe since 1938
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M M Apr 19, 2017

Contingency plans for such a scenario are against the German rules. Sorry Mark, better luck next time.
- M M Apr 22, 2017
  
  Jonas, judging from your comment, you need to plan yourself a holiday and pretty soon, probably you know where to, the club med that you called that has been occupied recentlynb y flow of migrants and I shall leave it up to your intelligent mind to guess who's policies it was, the EU right?
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