El desafío chino

NUEVA YORK – Hasta ahora, los debates  acerca de si China debe revaluar su moneda, el renminbi, se han centrado casi exclusivamente en el impacto del tipo de cambio en la balanza comercial de China. ¿Pero cuáles serían las consecuencias de una apreciación del renminbi sobre la inversión extranjera directa (IED) entrante y hacia el exterior de China?

Al evaluar la política monetaria de China, los efectos de cualquier cambio en la balanza comercial no son más importantes que las posibles consecuencias para la IED entrante, que juega un papel crucial en el desarrollo económico de China, y la IED de esta nación hacia el exterior, que está recibiendo cada vez más atención en todo el mundo.

China ha sido el mayor receptor de IED del mundo en desarrollo desde mediados de la década de 1990. La revaluación del renminbi haría más costoso para las empresas extranjeras establecerse (o expandirse) en China - el mercado más dinámico del mundo - y haría que las exportaciones de las filiales extranjeras, que representan el 54% de las exportaciones totales, fueran menos competitivas a nivel internacional. Por otro lado, el aumento de los costes se vería compensado en cierta medida por los menores costes de la importación de insumos, y las filiales extranjeras podrían esperar repatriar mayores ganancias por sus ventas en China en términos de sus propias monedas.

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