Le Défi Chinois

NEW YORK – Fino ad ora il dibattito sulla necessità o meno da parte della Cina di rivalutare la sua moneta - il renminbi- si è focalizzato quasi esclusivamente sull’impatto del tasso di cambio della valuta sulla bilancia commerciale cinese. Ma cosa comporterebbe una rivalutazione del renminbi in termini di investimenti stranieri diretti (ISD) all’interno e verso l’estero?

Da un’analisi della politica monetaria cinese, si osserva che gli effetti di eventuali modifiche alla bilancia commerciale non sono più importanti delle potenziali conseguenze sugli investimenti stranieri diretti all’interno del paese, che svolgono un ruolo fondamentale nello sviluppo economico della Cina, e sugli investimenti stranieri diretti all’estero, che sono al momento oggetto di una particolare e crescente attenzione a livello mondiale.

Sin dalla metà degli anni ’90, la Cina è diventata il più grande destinatario a livello mondiale degli ISD. In questo contesto, la rivalutazione del renminbi da un lato aumenterebbe i costi di insediamento (o espansione) delle aziende straniere in Cina, che vanta il mercato più dinamico a livello mondiale, riducendo a livello internazionale la competitività delle esportazioni delle società affiliate, che rappresentano il 54% delle esportazioni totali. Dall’altro lato, l’aumento dei costi verrebbe compensato, in parte, dall’importazione di fattori produttivi ad un costo ridotto, mentre le società affiliate straniere potrebbero incassare maggiori profitti nella loro valuta locale dalle vendite in Cina.

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