Sentimiento y sensibilidad en los mercados en ascenso

BERKELEY – Las economías con mercados en ascenso han pasado por malos momentos en los últimos meses. Las corrientes netas de capitales dirigidas a ellas se redujeron en unos 122.000 millones de dólares en 2013, es decir, un 9,6 por ciento, aproximadamente, en los últimos doce meses, y han vuelto a disminuir marcadamente durante los dos primeros meses de este año. ¿A qué se debe esa reducción y cuánto durará?

Los inversores mundiales se han vuelto más reacios a los riesgos en vista de unas perspectivas monetarias más rigurosas en los Estados Unidos y Europa, además de las preocupaciones por el lento crecimiento de China y sus efectos negativos en la demanda mundial y en los precios de los productos básicos, y, conforme a la experiencia del pasado, la sensación de debilidad ha reducido las corrientes de capitales dirigidas a las economías con mercados en ascenso en general y en particular a las que, como Turquía, Indonesia y el Brasil, tienen grandes necesidades de financiación exterior o afrontan unas próximas elecciones de resultados inciertos. La inesperada crisis de Crimea, la ansiedad por las intenciones de Rusia en la región y las sanciones occidentales han puesto aún más nerviosos a unos inversores ya asustadizos.

De 2002 a 2007 y de nuevo después de la crisis financiera mundial del período 2008-2009, las corrientes de capitales dirigidas a las economías en ascenso aumentaron repentinamente, pues los inversores mundiales buscaban rendimientos en unas condiciones de crecimiento lento y recesión en los países desarrollados, tipos de interés bajos y abundancia de liquidez. Durante ese período, los inversores pasaron por alto los riesgos económicos y políticos de los países por separado y metieron economías muy diferentes en una «clase única», considerada una apuesta segura. Las corrientes de inversión extranjera directa, de inversión de cartera y de deuda de cartera dirigidas a los mercados en ascenso alcanzaron niveles sin precedentes, el más rápido de los cuales fue el de la deuda de cartera, la más inestable y más sensible ante los cambios repentinos del sentimiento de los inversores.

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