新兴市场的情绪与敏感性

发自伯克莱——新兴市场经济体在最近几个月经历了一段特别困难的时期。2013年针对这些国家的资金净流入减少了约1220亿美元,与去年同期相比下降9.6%,而今年头两个月又再次出现暴跌。究竟是哪些因素在推动如此暴跌,跌势又将持续到何时为止呢?

由于预期欧美地区货币状况收紧,同时担心中国经济放缓可能对全球需求以及商品价格的负面影响,全球投资者都变得更加厌恶风险。通过,过往的经验告诉我们,弱势的情绪会在总体上减少新兴经济体的资金流入,尤其是类似土耳其,印尼和巴西这类拥有庞大外部融资需求或是即将面对不确定性选举的国家。而意料之外的克里米亚危机,对俄罗斯染指该地区的恐慌,以及西方的制裁都会进一步让本来就如惊弓之鸟般的投资者们战栗不已。

从2002到2007年,以及全球金融危机之后的2008~2009年,资本大规模流向新兴经济体,投资者们离开低增长及衰退的发达经济体以寻求更高回报,利率低下,而且流动性充足。在这段时期,投资者们无视各国自身的经济和政治风险,把这些截然不同的经济体放进了同一个“资产分级”里,并被视为是一种单向投机。有史以来最大的规模的国外直接投资,投资组合基金和组合投资债券纷纷流入新兴市场,而其中流动性最快,对投资者情绪突变最为敏感的组合投资债券规模增长最为迅速。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/1ls1Xrm/zh;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.