新兴市场的情绪与敏感性

发自伯克莱——新兴市场经济体在最近几个月经历了一段特别困难的时期。2013年针对这些国家的资金净流入减少了约1220亿美元,与去年同期相比下降9.6%,而今年头两个月又再次出现暴跌。究竟是哪些因素在推动如此暴跌,跌势又将持续到何时为止呢?

由于预期欧美地区货币状况收紧,同时担心中国经济放缓可能对全球需求以及商品价格的负面影响,全球投资者都变得更加厌恶风险。通过,过往的经验告诉我们,弱势的情绪会在总体上减少新兴经济体的资金流入,尤其是类似土耳其,印尼和巴西这类拥有庞大外部融资需求或是即将面对不确定性选举的国家。而意料之外的克里米亚危机,对俄罗斯染指该地区的恐慌,以及西方的制裁都会进一步让本来就如惊弓之鸟般的投资者们战栗不已。

从2002到2007年,以及全球金融危机之后的2008~2009年,资本大规模流向新兴经济体,投资者们离开低增长及衰退的发达经济体以寻求更高回报,利率低下,而且流动性充足。在这段时期,投资者们无视各国自身的经济和政治风险,把这些截然不同的经济体放进了同一个“资产分级”里,并被视为是一种单向投机。有史以来最大的规模的国外直接投资,投资组合基金和组合投资债券纷纷流入新兴市场,而其中流动性最快,对投资者情绪突变最为敏感的组合投资债券规模增长最为迅速。

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