Hay que hacer efectiva la recuperación de los Estados Unidos

BERKELEY – La economía estadounidense creció mucho más rápido de lo previsto en 2013 y parece que está lista para un mayor empuje este año. Sin embargo, sigue habiendo rezago en el mercado laboral y mientras continúe así, los dividendos, debido a un crecimiento más acelerado, seguirán concentrados en los niveles más altos de distribución del ingreso, como ha sido a lo largo de la recuperación.

De acuerdo con estimaciones recientes de la Oficina de Análisis Económico estadounidense (BEA), el PIB real (ajustado a la inflación) tuvo una tasa de crecimiento promedio anual de 2.7% en 2013, en comparación con la reducida de 2% de 2012. Gran parte de las previsiones –incluida la de la Oficina no partidista de Presupuesto del Congreso, la llamada Blue Chip consensus, y la Reserva Federal, estiman que el crecimiento real anual será de al menos 2.8% en 2014.

A pesar de dos informes recientes sobre un nivel de empleo moderado, hay muchas razones para esperar un crecimiento acelerado en 2014. Los vientos en contra que desestabilizan la recuperación estadounidense –hojas de balance empobrecidas de las familias, un mercado inmobiliario deprimido y cortes en el gasto público y el empleo– se están disipando. La deuda de las familias ha caído a niveles no vistos desde la primera parte de los años noventa, el patrimonio real neto de las familias regresó a los niveles previos al punto máximo de la recesión, y la proporción de la inversión residencial con el PIB está aumentando.

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