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Fluxos globais e crescimento global

BERKELEY – uma parcela crescente da actividade económica mundial envolve fluxos transfronteiriços. Porém, em que medida está interligada a economia global? Em que medida se alteram os fluxos transfronteiriços entre actividades, sectores e países? Que lugar ocupam as economias nacionais em termos dos seus fluxos transfronteiriços ou “interligações”? E quais são as implicações para as empresas e para os decisores políticos?

Um relatório recente do McKinsey Global Institute aborda estas questões através da análise das entradas e saídas de bens, serviços, financiamento, pessoas e dados e comunicações de195 países nos últimos 20 anos.

Quer os dados agregados, quer os micro exemplos confirmam que o mundo está interligado de forma cada vez mais estreita e os fluxos transfronteiriços aumentam em extensão e complexidade, englobando um número maior de países e participantes. Embora se tenha verificado uma contracção significativa no período entre 2007 e 2009, decorrente da profunda recessão global, o valor combinado dos fluxos financeiros e comércio de bens e serviços em 2012 correspondeu a 36% do PIB global – 1,5 vezes superior ao valor registado em 1980.

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