Lateinamerikas nächste Wachstumsaufgabe

Seit 2003 wachsen und gedeihen die lateinamerikanischen Volkswirtschaften, bei einem BIP-Anstieg von 17 % (einschließlich Schätzungen für 2006), einem jährlichen Wachstum von durchschnittlich 4,3 % und einem Anstieg des BIP pro Kopf um 12 %. Obwohl die Zahlen beeindruckend sind, ist es erst das zweite Mal in 25 Jahren, dass Lateinamerika vier aufeinander folgende Jahre mit positivem Wirtschaftswachstum erlebt. Gehen die guten Zeiten weiter?

Dieses neuere Wachstum wurde durch eine starke Erhöhung der Rohstoffpreise angetrieben, nicht nur bei den Energiegrundstoffen wie Öl, Gas und Kohle, sondern auch bei Metallen, Mineralen und landwirtschaftlichen Erzeugnissen. Die durch das stark beschleunigte Industriewachstum in Asien, insbesondere in China und Indien, wachsende Nachfrage nach Rohstoffen ist dem realen Austauschverhältnis vieler lateinamerikanischer Länder zugute gekommen, und es ist nicht zu erwarten, dass dies in der nächsten Zeit aufhört.

Historisch betrachtet, setzt in solchen Zeiten häufig finanzielle Verschwendungssucht ein, wobei die unerwarteten Einnahmen für extravagante Projekte der öffentlichen Hand vergeudet werden. Doch nicht dieses Mal – zumindest bis jetzt. In den sieben wichtigsten Volkswirtschaften Lateinamerikas (Argentinien, Brasilien, Chile, Kolumbien, Mexiko, Peru und Venezuela), auf die zusammen 90 % des regionalen BIP entfallen, betrug das jährliche Wirtschaftswachstum im dritten Quartal 2006 durchschnittlich 6 %, während die industrielle Produktion um 8 % anstieg. Doch scheinen die Regierungen den Reichtum dafür zu nutzen, fällige Auslandsschulden abzubezahlen und ihre Devisenrücklagen zu vergrößern.

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