La Historia sin Fin de América Latina

Y ahí vamos de nuevo. América Latina se encuentra en serios aprietos y los sospechosos comunes (el FMI, el Tesoro de Estados Unidos) vienen al rescate. El mundo vió esto ya muchas veces.

Treinta años de cataclismos económicos en América Latina pueden reducirse a una simple lección: los gobiernos de la región son demasiado grandes en comparación con su habilidad para obtener rentas a través de tipos normales de impuestos. Hasta que ese punto clave sea resuelto las crisis serán siempre la norma, pues esos países tendrán que seguir eligiendo entre dos opciones económicas fundamentales: el incremento de la renta a través de la inflación, o permitir que la deuda crezca.

El ciclo típico -Argentina es un ejemplo perfecto- es en el que se permite que la inflación se incremente durante un periodo. Con eso, la cantidad de impuestos recibidos crece, al tiempo que la deuda se mantiene estable. Pero con el tiempo la gente aprende a vivir con la alta inflación y a separar la economía de sus efectos, reduciendo así las rentas logradas a través del "impuesto inflacionario". En este punto las rentas del gobierno caen, los beneficios de la alta inflación se desvanecen y se consolida el apoyo político brindado a la estabilización.

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