Crises à perpétuité en Amérique latine

Ça recommence. L'Amérique latine est embourbée dans une nouvelle crise et les habituels coupables désignés (le FMI et le Trésor américain) viennent à son secours. Ce scénario s'est déjà répété maintes fois.

Trente ans de tourmente économique en Amérique latine se réduisent à cette simple constatation : les gouvernements de la région veulent faire beaucoup plus qu'ils ne peuvent, sans tenir compte de leur incapacité à prélever normalement les impôts. Jusqu'à ce que ce problème majeur soit résolu, les crises resteront la norme, car les gouvernements n'ont le choix qu'entre l'inflation pour renflouer les caisses de l'Etat et l'augmentation de la dette.

L'Argentine est l'exemple-type de l'enchaînement des événements, Dans un premier temps rien n'est fait pour juguler l'inflation, les recettes fiscales augmentent et la dette reste stable. Mais au bout d'un certain temps, les gens apprennent à vivre avec l'inflation et se débrouillent pour qu'elle n'ait pas de répercussions économiques, ce qui a pour conséquence de priver le gouvernement des revenus supplémentaires dus à l'inflation. Les rentrées fiscales diminuent, les avantages dus à l'inflation disparaissent et le pays convient d'une politique d'austérité.

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