Nekonečný příběh Latinské Ameriky

A je to tu zas. Latinská Amerika má velké problémy a obvyklí podezřelí (Mezinárodní měnový fond, ministerstvo financí USA) jim jdou na pomoc. Kolikrát už tohle svět viděl...

Třicet let makroekonomického pozdvižení v Latinské Americe lze zredukovat na jedno prosté ponaučení: vlády v tomto regionu jsou příliš velké ve srovnání s jejich schopnostmi zvýšit státní příjmy běžnými způsoby zdanění. Dokud nebude tato klíčová otázka vyřešena, bude přicházet jedna krize za druhou, protože i nadále budou mít tyto země na výběr jen ze dvou možností: buď budou moci zvyšovat příjmy do státní kasy prostřednictvím inflace nebo narůstáním dluhu.

Typický cyklus - zde je dokonalým příkladem Argentina - probíhá tak, že na určitou dobu je inflaci povoleno stoupat. S tím rostou příjmy z daní a dluh zůstává stabilní. Ovšem postupem času se lidé naučí s vysokou inflací žít a izolují ekonomiku od účinků inflace, čímž sníží příjmy získané "inflační daní". V této chvíli se začnou zmenšovat vládní příjmy, mizet výhody vysoké inflace a konsolidovat politická podpora stabilizace.

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