Lateinamerikas aufpoliertes Jahrzehnt

SANTIAGO – Im Juli letzten Jahres hat die Inter-American Development Bank das “lateinamerikanische Jahrzehnt” ausgerufen. Diese Bezeichnung wurde ein paar Monate später vom Economist erneut aufgenommen und seitdem von zahllosen Apologeten und Experten wiederholt.

Um die Fachleute zum Jubeln zu bringen, gibt es nichts besseres als etwas Wirtschaftswachstum. Und dieses findet in Lateinamerika statt: dem Internationalen Währungsfonds zufolge 6% im letzten Jahr und schätzungsweise 4,75% im Jahr 2011. Verglichen mit der eher lahmen Entwicklung der letzten drei Jahrzehnte mutet dies raketengleich an. Und im Vergleich zu den jüngsten Negativrekorden in Nordamerika und Europa wird hier geradezu die Schallmauer durchbrochen. Seit der Krise stiegen die lateinamerikanischen Aktienmärkte stark an, und ebenso die Immobilienpreise (zumindest in den Ländern, in denen es dazu Statistiken gibt). Kein Wunder, dass die Begeisterung groß ist.

Anfang der 1980er Jahre war die Stimmung gegenüber Lateinamerika ähnlich positiv. Es gab reichlich Bankkredite aus den USA, und Länder wie Argentinien, Chile und Uruguay wiesen starkes Wachstum auf. Aber dann hob Paul Volcker die US-Zinssätze an, die Dollars kehrten zurück nach Hause, die meisten Länder gingen aufgrund ihrer Schulden pleite, und die 1980er Jahre wurden für Lateinamerika zu einem “verlorenen Jahrzehnt”..

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