Das lateinamerikanische Bildungsdefizit

Die Entscheidung Chinas, seine jahrzehntealte Politik der Bindung des Yuan an den Dollar aufzugeben, wird in Lateinamerika mit Enthusiasmus und Optimismus begrüßt. Auf dem ganzen Kontinent ist man der Ansicht, dass ein flexiblerer Wechselkurs des Yuan den unfairen Vorteil Chinas auf den internationalen Märkten einschränken wird. Dadurch, so sagt man uns, werden die lateinamerikanischen Industriegüter-Exporte international wettbewerbsfähiger.

Dieser Optimismus ist allerdings nicht angebracht. Trotz angekündigter Reformen ist es unwahrscheinlich, dass es zu einer signifikanten Wechselkursflexibilität der chinesischen Währung kommen wird. Tatsächlich hat die chinesische Führung bereits erklärt, dass das neue Wechselkurssystem auf die Erhaltung der Währungsstabilität abzielt. Chinas Politik ist der Singapurs nachempfunden, wo man große Wechselkursschwankungen vermieden hat - und wo es gelang, in den letzten drei Jahren einen bedeutend wettbewerbsfähigeren Wechselkurs aufrecht zu erhalten als in allen lateinamerikanischen Ländern.

Um im Wettbewerb mit China erfolgreicher zu sein, werden die Länder Lateinamerikas daher ihr Produktivitätswachstum steigern müssen. Unglücklicherweise ist der Kontinent für diese Herausforderungen nicht allzu gut gerüstet.

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