拉美大发商品横财

布宜诺斯艾利斯——由于自然资源出口收入激增,拉美正在掀起一股特殊的热潮。 但拉美地区能否最大限度地把握这次机会? 这笔资金的使用效果是否有待提高?

除中美地区外,商品价格暴涨已经改善了拉美国家的境外账户和财政状况。 自然资源出口收入占到2008年公共部门总收入的25%。委内瑞拉、玻利维亚、厄瓜多尔和墨西哥占比甚至达到40%以上。 此项收入占上述国家GDP的约7%(委内瑞拉和玻利维亚超过11%,厄瓜多尔和墨西哥则占8%)。

要想确定如何使用这笔横财,一定要先搞清楚商品价格上涨是永久还是暂时性的。 如果是后者,那么最好的选择莫过于把这笔额外收入积攒起来,或者退而求其次,用它来偿还国家债务。 可如果涨价是永久性的,增加开支或减轻税收压力就成为明智的选择。

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