argentina central bank Ulstein Bild/Getty Images

Do Latinské Ameriky dál proudí kapitál

BOGOTA – Latinská Amerika – a zejména Jižní Amerika – je už léta v krizi. Zahraniční kapitál v podobě přímých i finančních investic však do regionu proudí dál. To je nevídané.

V minulosti byla přerušení finančních toků – neboli „náhlé zástavy“ – základním rysem krizí v Latinské Americe i jinde v rozvojovém světě. Latinskoamerická dluhová krize z 80. let přinesla osmileté přerušení. Asijská finanční krize, která vypukla v polovině roku 1997 a později se rozšířila do všech rozvíjejících se ekonomik, vyvolala šestileté přerušení. A přerušení toků spojované s velkou hospodářskou krizí ve 30. letech trvalo několik desetiletí.

Tato dynamika se však zjevně mění. Po pádu americké investiční banky Lehman Brothers v roce 2007 se kapitálové toky přerušily pouze asi na rok. Navzdory velikosti prvotního šoku se kapitálové toky a rizikové marže v podstatě normalizovaly už do roku 2009, kdy se v Latinské Americe začalo prudce zvyšovat dluhopisové financování a zakrátko dosáhlo trojnásobku průměru z období před rokem 2008.

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