Guatemala economy John Moore/Getty Images

الحواجز التي تعرقل النمو في أميركا اللاتينية

كاراكاس ــ من المتوقع أن تخرج أميركا اللاتينية من الركود هذا العام. ولكن لا ينبغي للمنطقة أن تُفرِط في التفاؤل. فعلى الرغم من انتعاش النمو الاقتصادي، يظل أقل من 2% في المتوسط. وفي بيئة عالمية مبتلاة بعدم اليقين، لا يميل ميزان المخاطر لصالح أميركا اللاتينية.

الواقع أن اقتصاد المنطقة شديد الحساسية للتطورات العالمية. ففي العقود المنصرمة، عملت الرياح المواتية التي هبت من الخارج على تعزيز معدلات النمو المرتفعة؛ والآن تعرقل الرياح غير المواتية الخارجية النمو للعام الثاني على التوالي، حتى أصبح أداء أميركا اللاتينية أضعف من أداء أي منطقة ناشئة أخرى.

غير أن عام 2017 سيكون أفضل من عام 2016 عندما عانى الأداء الاقتصادي نتيجة للتباطؤ في الصين والتعافي الهزيل في أغلب الاقتصادات المتقدمة. وقد تسببت المخاوف من استمرار تباطؤ نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في الصين في خلق موجات صدمة في الأسواق المالية العالمية دفعت أسعار السلع الأساسية وأسعار الأصول إلى الانخفاض في الأسواق الناشئة. وفي حين تبددت مخاوف المستثمرين بعض الشيء مع استقرار اقتصاد الصين على مدار العام، فقد استمر رأس المال في الهروب من الأسواق الناشئة إلى ملاذات أكثر أمانا.

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