Patos cojos que se quieren

FLORENCIA – Los temores sobre la deuda soberana y las dudas sobre el plan de rescate del euro han situado la cuestión de las divisas internacionales de reserva en primer plano. Hasta esta primavera, la mayoría de los observadores había dado por sentado que la participación del dólar en las reservas internacionales iría disminuyendo gradualmente, mientras que la del euro aumentaría, y que el mundo haría una suave transición gradual a un régimen de multirreservas.

Hasta ahora, la crisis financiera mundial ha sido históricamente notable al no haber tenido repercusiones importantes en los mercados de divisas. Las acciones de las divisas de reserva más importantes han estado estables, pues en 2009 el dólar representaba el 62 por ciento de las reservas de divisas y el euro el 27 por ciento. Los cambios importantes no se han debido a decisiones deliberadas de los bancos centrales de reasignar reservas, sino de la simple aritmética de los cambiantes tipos de cambio: con un dólar más fuerte, aumentó la proporción del dólar en las reservas mundiales, mientras que con un dólar más débil se redujo.

De hecho, un equilibrio del terror –por decirlo así– ha obstaculizado reasignaciones importantes por parte de los grandes poseedores de reservas. El intento de diversificar vendiendo un activo determinado tendría tan grandes repercusiones en los mercados, que produciría grandes pérdidas a cualquier banco central que lo hiciera.

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