Patos cojos que se quieren

FLORENCIA – Los temores sobre la deuda soberana y las dudas sobre el plan de rescate del euro han situado la cuestión de las divisas internacionales de reserva en primer plano. Hasta esta primavera, la mayoría de los observadores había dado por sentado que la participación del dólar en las reservas internacionales iría disminuyendo gradualmente, mientras que la del euro aumentaría, y que el mundo haría una suave transición gradual a un régimen de multirreservas.

Hasta ahora, la crisis financiera mundial ha sido históricamente notable al no haber tenido repercusiones importantes en los mercados de divisas. Las acciones de las divisas de reserva más importantes han estado estables, pues en 2009 el dólar representaba el 62 por ciento de las reservas de divisas y el euro el 27 por ciento. Los cambios importantes no se han debido a decisiones deliberadas de los bancos centrales de reasignar reservas, sino de la simple aritmética de los cambiantes tipos de cambio: con un dólar más fuerte, aumentó la proporción del dólar en las reservas mundiales, mientras que con un dólar más débil se redujo.

De hecho, un equilibrio del terror –por decirlo así– ha obstaculizado reasignaciones importantes por parte de los grandes poseedores de reservas. El intento de diversificar vendiendo un activo determinado tendría tan grandes repercusiones en los mercados, que produciría grandes pérdidas a cualquier banco central que lo hiciera.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.