美元、欧元:一对相互搀扶的跛鸭

佛罗伦萨——对主权债务安全的担忧、对欧元营救方案的疑虑,已把国际储备货币的问题推到了前台。直到今年春天,大多数的观察家都还认为,美元在国际储备中所占的比重将逐渐下滑,欧元的比重将上升,而全世界将平缓地过渡到一种多元储备的格局。

到目前为止,本轮全球金融危机尚未对外汇市场发生显著影响,这在历史上相当罕见。各大储备货币的份额基本保持稳定,2009年,美元占全球外汇储备的62%,欧元占27%。凡有较大的变动,并不是由于各国央行出台了什么重新配置外汇储备的措施,而是源于汇率波动带来的算术上的变化:美元走强提升其在全球储备中的份额,走弱则减低该份额。

事实上,有一种“恐怖平衡”让主要的外储国家不敢进行大规模的重新配置。谁若想通过出售某种资产来进行多元化,由此产生的市场影响将为其自身招致巨大亏损。

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